@intelligence2
Jasmine: peak flowering in June and July. Will the same be true for the Revolution? #iq2rev
2011-05-13, 13:29
The full motion for the debate was “The Jasmine Revolution Will Wither in North Africa: It Won't Meet the Expectations of Youth”, although there seemed to be some confusion about the subtitle – sometimes it was about economic dividends, sometimes about political ones, sometimes about expectations. This confusion was reflected in the variety of arguments that discretely missed each other like busy passengers on the Tube. Convening the debate was Nik Gowing, the main presenter of BBC World News since 1996, who brought an immediate calm and professionalism to the whole event. The audience, with no clear majority of any race, age or sex, pre-voted approximately 3:2 against the motion, but with around a quarter saying they weren’t sure.
Each speaker had the floor for 8-9 minutes and Nora Ayman, a 23-year-old corporate analyst at the National Bank of Egypt who was at the Egyptian revolution this year, was first to propose the motion. Ayman argued that the conditions are not yet right for democracy to flourish; there is no real dialogue, merely posturing. The defining value of democracy is hearing and listening to dissenting voices, which is not happening. Specifically in Egypt, she asserted, the media uses the tone of the old regime and there is a noticeable lack of education about the values and methods of democracy.
@intelligence2
Democracy takes time - just look at the histories of Western European countries, argues Nyman #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 18:34
The first speaker against the motion was Ahmed Naguib, the Advising and Exchange Director for AMIDEAST and a key player and mobiliser in the 2011 Egyptian revolution. Naguib spoke in rallying, emotive tones about how “this revolution is unprecedented by all measures” and that “we will no longer tolerate dictatorship”. He argued that the immense sense of ownership the Egyptian people had felt will push them toward actively taking control of their economy and government; that where education had not previously been a priority, it is now; and that legislation is already on its way to improve civil liberties.
@pia_muzaffar
Ahmed Naguib: people of #Egypt now have sense of ownership of their country - won't tolerate corruption and poor governance anymore #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 18:44
The next speaker for the proposition was Norman Stone, Professor of International Relations at Bilkent University, Ankara, and previously of Oxford University. Professor Stone spoke frankly about a world where children gather like bunches of grapes and forty people live off one wage; this is not a world where one can just slap on a democracy sticker and have done with it. Democratic reforms, he argued, are no guarantee for long-term economic stability. In fact, history shows us that the very danger of revolutions is the instability that follows.
@Its_Zippy
Agreeing with Norman Stone - Egypt may not have the apparatus to sustain revolution. #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 18:49
Roger Cohen spoke next against the motion and was the first to really engage with anything his opponents had said. Professor Stone had said that we must believe in yesterday – only the Americans believe more in tomorrow. Cohen replied that he must then be an American, for he believes in tomorrow, when the alternative is the police state of yesterday. As a reporter for the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune, Cohen was at Tahrir Square and has experienced many other elements of the Arab Spring. He argued that the people have overcome their fear and that powerful emotions engulf the youth in these cascades of revolution. He spoke as if it was inevitable and the audience applauded and cheered him on.
@intelligence2
Cohen: the opposition aren't exercising sensible 'realism' - instead, they're guilty of 'pessimism' and 'cynicism' #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 18:55
@_mohamedm
Bravo Roger Cohen, excellent summation of the aspirations and hope of the revolutionaries in Egypt and elsewhere #Egypt #Jan25 #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 18:59
@schnitzelboy12
#rogercohen just slammed his opponents. What a legend #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 19:01
Responding to Cohen’s accusations of pessimism on the part of the proposition, Douglas Murray explained that they were actually cautious. They don’t wish for the revolutions to wither, but they also don’t share the thundering optimism clearly demonstrated by the opposition. This was just one of the straw men that Murray identified in Cohen’s arguments and effortlessly dispensed with before proceeding. I don’t think the audience were as convinced by this as I was, as Cohen had sat down to a roaring crowd. Murray is Associate Director of the Henry Jackson Society and formerly Director of the Centre for Social Cohesion, both non-partisan think tanks. He argued that there are many reasons to warn caution upon the Arab youth, mostly the lack of democratic accountability. From a wider perspective, open and free societies have a duty to help those emerging from closed ones, but the will to help is not present. We wish them well, he said, but we must warn them not to be led astray.
@intelligence2
Murray criticises response of international community to events in North Africa - reserving particular censure for Hilary Clinton #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 19:09
The final speaker against the motion was Fawaz Gerges, Professor of Middle Eastern Politics and International Relations at LSE. This is just the beginning, this is a psychological rapture that has shattered political apathy in the Middle East, he argued; Arabs have been empowered and emboldened with international values in their hearts. An impassioned speech, extolling the undeniable power and force of these uprisings, ended the speakers’ command of the floor and gave the audience a chance to have their voices heard.
@Nanyatef
RT @intelligence2: Gerges emphasises the 'psychological rapture' - in other words, the fear in Arab people has now gone #iq2rev
2011-05-16, 19:30
During the audience’s questions I kept half an ear open, but voting had already started and I felt the speakers were no longer persuading us, only reiterating their positions. I reflected on the evening and how my pre-vote ‘For’ the motion had been a gut instinct and how my mind had not been pushed that hard away from that feeling. It seemed the rest of the audience were similarly stubborn, as the post-vote came out with only five ‘For’ votes converting to ‘Against’. However, the quarter of the room that were unsure in the pre-vote had been swayed into action and the vote ended 40 ‘For’ to 178 ‘Against’, with 12 continuing to abstain.
Overall, I felt the speakers who had had more direct contact with the revolutionaries were the ones who had more confidence in the revolutions. I wondered whether they were better informed, or if they had just got caught up in the spirit of the thing. I wondered what kind of a person you have to be to see your world turned upside down all around you and not to get carried away with it.
